WhyEssEff [she/her]

I do the emotes lea-caramelldansen

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Joined 6 years ago
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Cake day: July 25th, 2020

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  • I’ve been thinking along those lines as well. In my opinion, long as Iran holds firm to ceasefire in Lebanon as a non-negotiable, it can really only benefit them (given, of course, we abstract the logic from the various internal strains of war). Either:

    • The Entity does not abide by/actively sabotages the terms. Then, Iran backs away from talks with renewed casus belli due to ongoing perfidy.
    • The Entity begrudgingly accepts the situation but engages in its historic tactic of going sicko mode hours before they’re wrangled. Then, either Iran can in turn pummel Tel Aviv as they were threatening and say something like ‘clearly, the agreement has not gone into effect yet,’ or Iran can back away from talks with renewed casus belli.
    • Washington genuinely wrangles The Entity into unabashed compliance. Sours US-Israel relationship and halts offense on Lebanon.

    In any case, all of these have the second order effect of, if genuine, straining relations between US and Israel, and if perfidious, returning to current status quo with a fresh casus belli. The second scenario’s first option may be a bit tenuous, but it is something I can see happening if they really want to project the “we’re reasonable, they’re not” posture they have been taking thus far.

    I’ll admit, I am nervous that Iran isn’t operating on this wavelength and worry for the possibility that this results in a state of pyrrhic inertia if The Entity aggresses and Iran doubles down on process, but I think it’s a largely irrational worry because they have shown sustained competence throughout the war.