The Federal Aviation Administration says flights departing for Los Angeles International Airport were halted briefly due to a staffing shortage at a Southern California air traffic facility.
There are less than 3k Air Force ATC (AFSC code 1C1). I couldn’t find how many Navy Air Corps ATC there are, but since it’s a bit smaller than the Air Force, we can guess around 2k.
There are 13k civilian ATC, and that’s at anemic levels as it is. They can’t possibly replace these people.
Reality has a way of dealing with consequences on its own.
its also heavily (naturally)gatekeeped job, mainly because of the requirements of becoming one, plus the competitiveness to get the jobs, and first you have to get intoa program to become an atc.
Something to note, some AF ACT operations can be contracted out. This means that even the AF doesn’t have enough even for its own operations, and that number probably reflects the available number of ‘wartime’ operators available.
Also, the military operates under a huge umbrella of tasks, where a 1C1 wouldn’t ‘just be’ ACT - that would be your ‘wartime’ job (specifically when you first enter), and you are ever becoming more generalized to handle a broader scope of tasks and responsibilities. If every 1C1 were used, you’d lose a lot of managers, support, training and etc to put people who are 1C1 who may not have done ATC work in years. Think First Sergeants and the like, they could do it - but you’d lose someone who has the knowledge of all 1C operations and go back to just doing ATC. That’s a heavy ask.
Every service has a large air component so even if they each only have 2k that’s 9000 atc right there. Even with a lean roster they can shutdown airports and keep important corridors open.
These aren’t smart people in charge. They don’t care if the military ATC get even more burned out since they can’t quit like civilians do.
Don’t assume trump and his ilk will do the intelligent thing, they will always do the capricious vengeful thing.
Don’t assume trump and his ilk will do the intelligent thing, they will always do the capricious vengeful thing.
As I’ve been trying to get at, that’s irrelevant. No, pulling military ATC does not work. 9k isn’t enough when 13k is already anemic. And what are the military air installations supposed to do without ATC?
Shutting down airports only highlights the problem. The airlines won’t survive that for long. Everything they could possibly try has natural consequences. It’s not a court imposing an order. It’s not congress finding its spine. It’s reality.
Edit: is there even a single military airport more complicated than Chicago Midway? Running a major hub may well be outside their training.
I don’t have numbers, but there are tons of tiny regional airports. The kind that have only a handful of flights a day. But they all still need ATC right. I bet you can halve the need by just shutting those down. A small number of people will have to drive further to catch a flight.
There are small, untowered airports, but they usually aren’t equipped for large jets, or for IFR landings (“instrument flight rules,” which is when the pilot relies on instrumentation instead of visually looking outside, such as during inclement weather.)
Small planes depending on VFR (visual flight rules) can probably plan flights to avoid towered airports. But the big commercial flights will be in trouble.
Jets can fly VFR as well, if needed, in towered airspace. There are a reason jets fly IFR nearly all the time, but if the choice is between the flight not happening, and landing VFR, they’ll choose the VFR landing any time weather permits. You’re just going to end up with a lot more delayed or diverted flights
The ones I am talking about have small jets or those turboprop planes for commercial service. And of course private small planes. I’ve seen a tower, but I guess it could be empty.
I wasn’t suggesting it would be permanent. But it would reduce the need temporarily so that maybe the military atc could cover while they train new people. At least the government might see it that way. They don’t care much about the long term anyway.
It’d almost have to be the opposite. Military ATC aren’t used to dealing with the same kind of traffic levels as civilian ATC. Even Chicago Midway might be pushing it.
Because reality has stopped these people from implementing their plan already? That’s not how it works under authoritarians. The cruelty will be the point. Any airline who complains will get hit with fines or shuttered. They will shut down airports in democrat areas and keep the republican ones open.
They don’t give two shits about reality when they can just have their media lie about it.
They can try as much as they like. The airports are still getting shut down. Airlines will bleed money. There is no way out of that if ATC go on strike, illegal or not. You bargain with them or you fail.
And yeah, they do get stopped by reality all the time. They tried to fire a whole lot of people in the federal government. Then realized that a lot of those people absolutely must do certain jobs, like oversight of nuclear weapons stockpiles.
Just after the election, I argued with someone trying to make that same point about Project 2025. I argued that because of reality getting in the way, they couldn’t implement half of it. Guess where the Project 2025 Tracker has been stuck at for months? I actually didn’t expect to be so literally correct, but that’s what happened.
Yes, reality matters no matter how authoritarian the system is. Trump can no more do this than proclaim that Stephen Miller can jump off the Washington Monument and fly (no matter how much I might enjoy seeing that happen).
They let go most (a bit over 70%) of NRC Regulators. That is a very specialized job and requires very experienced people in them. One nuclear reactor has a major safety incident, well, there may have to be some shut downs for a while… which will cause an issue for power supply. Those data centers don’t power themselves.
Good Luck with that. The major airports that have the heaviest flights are in the states that create the most commerce and generate the most money. The Donor States.
I can’t comment on the number of military ATC, but I am familiar with civilian ATC operations. Military ATC cannot replace civilian ATC in many areas, especially not the sequence rates they do. The airspace is extremely complex near places like NYC. It requires months of training, with only the most experienced of ATC getting hired into those areas
They would need several military controllers to replace even a single center controller, and that’s after months of training
More likely, a major airport gets logger jammed and that shuts down the whole US airport network.
But that’s the whole point. Yes, they can technically “fix” it this way or that way. Trump can also tell Stephen Miller that he can jump off the Washington Monument and fly. There would still be consequences due to reality, and those consequences will end the whole charade one way or another.
There are less than 3k Air Force ATC (AFSC code 1C1). I couldn’t find how many Navy Air Corps ATC there are, but since it’s a bit smaller than the Air Force, we can guess around 2k.
There are 13k civilian ATC, and that’s at anemic levels as it is. They can’t possibly replace these people.
Reality has a way of dealing with consequences on its own.
its also heavily (naturally)gatekeeped job, mainly because of the requirements of becoming one, plus the competitiveness to get the jobs, and first you have to get intoa program to become an atc.
Something to note, some AF ACT operations can be contracted out. This means that even the AF doesn’t have enough even for its own operations, and that number probably reflects the available number of ‘wartime’ operators available.
Also, the military operates under a huge umbrella of tasks, where a 1C1 wouldn’t ‘just be’ ACT - that would be your ‘wartime’ job (specifically when you first enter), and you are ever becoming more generalized to handle a broader scope of tasks and responsibilities. If every 1C1 were used, you’d lose a lot of managers, support, training and etc to put people who are 1C1 who may not have done ATC work in years. Think First Sergeants and the like, they could do it - but you’d lose someone who has the knowledge of all 1C operations and go back to just doing ATC. That’s a heavy ask.
So the outlook is even worse than you suggest.
Every service has a large air component so even if they each only have 2k that’s 9000 atc right there. Even with a lean roster they can shutdown airports and keep important corridors open.
These aren’t smart people in charge. They don’t care if the military ATC get even more burned out since they can’t quit like civilians do.
Don’t assume trump and his ilk will do the intelligent thing, they will always do the capricious vengeful thing.
As I’ve been trying to get at, that’s irrelevant. No, pulling military ATC does not work. 9k isn’t enough when 13k is already anemic. And what are the military air installations supposed to do without ATC?
Shutting down airports only highlights the problem. The airlines won’t survive that for long. Everything they could possibly try has natural consequences. It’s not a court imposing an order. It’s not congress finding its spine. It’s reality.
Edit: is there even a single military airport more complicated than Chicago Midway? Running a major hub may well be outside their training.
I don’t have numbers, but there are tons of tiny regional airports. The kind that have only a handful of flights a day. But they all still need ATC right. I bet you can halve the need by just shutting those down. A small number of people will have to drive further to catch a flight.
There are small, untowered airports, but they usually aren’t equipped for large jets, or for IFR landings (“instrument flight rules,” which is when the pilot relies on instrumentation instead of visually looking outside, such as during inclement weather.)
Small planes depending on VFR (visual flight rules) can probably plan flights to avoid towered airports. But the big commercial flights will be in trouble.
Jets can fly VFR as well, if needed, in towered airspace. There are a reason jets fly IFR nearly all the time, but if the choice is between the flight not happening, and landing VFR, they’ll choose the VFR landing any time weather permits. You’re just going to end up with a lot more delayed or diverted flights
The ones I am talking about have small jets or those turboprop planes for commercial service. And of course private small planes. I’ve seen a tower, but I guess it could be empty.
Those small airports play a critical role in the training of pilots. Without them, you strangle the pipeline for new pilots
I wasn’t suggesting it would be permanent. But it would reduce the need temporarily so that maybe the military atc could cover while they train new people. At least the government might see it that way. They don’t care much about the long term anyway.
It’d almost have to be the opposite. Military ATC aren’t used to dealing with the same kind of traffic levels as civilian ATC. Even Chicago Midway might be pushing it.
Because reality has stopped these people from implementing their plan already? That’s not how it works under authoritarians. The cruelty will be the point. Any airline who complains will get hit with fines or shuttered. They will shut down airports in democrat areas and keep the republican ones open.
They don’t give two shits about reality when they can just have their media lie about it.
They can try as much as they like. The airports are still getting shut down. Airlines will bleed money. There is no way out of that if ATC go on strike, illegal or not. You bargain with them or you fail.
And yeah, they do get stopped by reality all the time. They tried to fire a whole lot of people in the federal government. Then realized that a lot of those people absolutely must do certain jobs, like oversight of nuclear weapons stockpiles.
Just after the election, I argued with someone trying to make that same point about Project 2025. I argued that because of reality getting in the way, they couldn’t implement half of it. Guess where the Project 2025 Tracker has been stuck at for months? I actually didn’t expect to be so literally correct, but that’s what happened.
Yes, reality matters no matter how authoritarian the system is. Trump can no more do this than proclaim that Stephen Miller can jump off the Washington Monument and fly (no matter how much I might enjoy seeing that happen).
They let go most (a bit over 70%) of NRC Regulators. That is a very specialized job and requires very experienced people in them. One nuclear reactor has a major safety incident, well, there may have to be some shut downs for a while… which will cause an issue for power supply. Those data centers don’t power themselves.
We will just have to agree to disagree and see who’s right in a few months or years.
Good Luck with that. The major airports that have the heaviest flights are in the states that create the most commerce and generate the most money. The Donor States.
then it would leave nothing for the military to use for thier own services.
I can’t comment on the number of military ATC, but I am familiar with civilian ATC operations. Military ATC cannot replace civilian ATC in many areas, especially not the sequence rates they do. The airspace is extremely complex near places like NYC. It requires months of training, with only the most experienced of ATC getting hired into those areas
They would need several military controllers to replace even a single center controller, and that’s after months of training
They’ll do it anyways and then people will die
More likely, a major airport gets logger jammed and that shuts down the whole US airport network.
But that’s the whole point. Yes, they can technically “fix” it this way or that way. Trump can also tell Stephen Miller that he can jump off the Washington Monument and fly. There would still be consequences due to reality, and those consequences will end the whole charade one way or another.
Until Fox/OANN/Newsmax get their story straight for how it’s caused by Democrats breeding gay frogs or whatever