idk about that, these are my subjective opinions but I think that the HTS leadership is smart enough to know if they bite the hand that feeds them(the west and their landlocked aircraft carrier Israel) even in retaliation to deliberate strikes against their positions then they will likely face regime change, with the atrocities they’ve committed against Alawites and other groups that the western states have tacitly ignored untill now used as casus belli
So imo they wouldn’t fight back against strikes against their positions by Israel unless they were an existential threat to their control over the rest of Syria
I would argue Israel already is an existential threat to HTS’ control of Syria because they still occupy the South-West of the country.
The main factor is not the threat of regime change by the West, but how much HTS is willing to tolerate Israeli aggression before they completely lose support of the Syrian people. A comprador may not want to bite the hand that feeds them, but they also cannot ignore the hearts and minds of the masses. And the Syrian masses want peaceful self-governance after 15 years of civil war, NOT Israel invading and occupying their land. Right now, HTS can still ignore the South-West/ Golan Heights because they don’t have any control over that region, but if Israel decides to expand further towards North, or attack the capital directly, they will have a huge problem. If they still choose to not respond and keep focusing on fighting their civil war/ violently purging minorities, the Syrian people will start turning against them.
Of course, I could be getting ahead of myself here and maybe HTS will strike some official non-aggression pact and just let Israel keep the Golan Heights in the near future, but they can’t ignore the main contradictions in their own country forever.
idk about that, these are my subjective opinions but I think that the HTS leadership is smart enough to know if they bite the hand that feeds them(the west and their landlocked aircraft carrier Israel) even in retaliation to deliberate strikes against their positions then they will likely face regime change, with the atrocities they’ve committed against Alawites and other groups that the western states have tacitly ignored untill now used as casus belli
So imo they wouldn’t fight back against strikes against their positions by Israel unless they were an existential threat to their control over the rest of Syria
I would argue Israel already is an existential threat to HTS’ control of Syria because they still occupy the South-West of the country.
The main factor is not the threat of regime change by the West, but how much HTS is willing to tolerate Israeli aggression before they completely lose support of the Syrian people. A comprador may not want to bite the hand that feeds them, but they also cannot ignore the hearts and minds of the masses. And the Syrian masses want peaceful self-governance after 15 years of civil war, NOT Israel invading and occupying their land. Right now, HTS can still ignore the South-West/ Golan Heights because they don’t have any control over that region, but if Israel decides to expand further towards North, or attack the capital directly, they will have a huge problem. If they still choose to not respond and keep focusing on fighting their civil war/ violently purging minorities, the Syrian people will start turning against them.
Of course, I could be getting ahead of myself here and maybe HTS will strike some official non-aggression pact and just let Israel keep the Golan Heights in the near future, but they can’t ignore the main contradictions in their own country forever.