I remember China more or less supporting Russia here and there, during the beginning of the Ukraine War. If this is wrong please correct me (this goes for everything) . So now Trump and Putin are basically allies. However as far as I know, Trump is still anti-China.
So, now what? Where in all this new found alliance leaves the US (and Russia) relationship with China? What is likely to happen, generally speaking? Will Russia cut ties with China? Will Trump get close with China now? I feel like Jinping and Trump are kind of squabbling over Putin’s affection right now, and I don’t know if that analogy is valid.
Firstly, I’d imagine China is pleased to see the US becoming weaker on the world stage. At least, in the long term.
But, secondly, China has its own problems at home right now and the US, which is about to have a lot less spending power, is a huge customer of China’s. Xi is likely going to take a “wait and see” approach and assess the shifting situation. Any amount of China and Russia getting close would likely be purely from an “enemy of my enemy is my friend” perspective and I doubt it would last. None of the major powers mingle for very long before stepping on each other’s feet.
Xi isn’t stupid. I’m sure he’s well aware that Putin would betray him in an instant for power and that Trump is both a Russian asset and a moron.
Any amount of China and Russia getting close would likely be purely from an “enemy of my enemy is my friend” perspective
Russia has lots of mineral resources that China wants, and China has lots of money that Russia wants.
Yes, but they both only want these things as means to an end. In the long run they both have dreams of becoming imperial super powers. They can cooperate for now, but they both know its an alliance of convenience.
Devil’s advocate opinion.
After spending a fair bit of time in China, I’ve come to understand one thing. A weaker America is good for China, but, China does not want to lead the world. Sloppy seconds works better from China.
Many years ago, Richard Branson, wrote that in his fight with British Airways, he actually preferred being second. This because nobody is gunning for you. Everyone always guns for gold, but a silver is not a bad thing either but nobody is in the race thinking, golly, I’m going for silver this time.
So, China has no real interest in the liabilities that come with leading the world. It’s a headache that does not benefit them. Own the infrastructure, mine the planet, sell plastic crap, that is fine, but rule the world, problems. Everyone turns to you for solutions or is trying to bring you down. Better to just chill.
This has been my view of China too; good to see it backed by a random internet person.
It’s essentially Oceania, Eurasia, and Eastasia from 1984 come-to-life. I’m kinda beating this one to death, but I hate how correct George Orwell seems to have been:
I say “I hate” it intentionally, because George Orwell is the same guy who also wrote:
There will be no curiosity, no enjoyment of the process of life. All competing pleasures will be destroyed. But always— do not forget this, Winston— always there will be the intoxication of power, constantly increasing and constantly growing subtler. Always, at every moment, there will be the thrill of victory, the sensation of trampling on an enemy who is helpless. If you want a picture of the future, imagine a boot stamping on a human face— forever.
So maybe not the rosiest of outlooks, if he keeps nailing it.
I like this comparison to see how they were right about different facets together.
You need to pair 1984 with Huxley’s Brave New World to see where we actually ended up.
I don’t genuinely think anyone here can honestly answer that question. Geopolitical futures are very uncertain right now
China wants Siberia because of its fresh water supply. It will either invade Russia or put Putin’s back against the wall and say, “Give us Siberia or else.”
So I’m wondering if that is one of the reasons Putin recruited Trump. To have backup.
Alright, let me limit the question then to just: Is Trump still genuinely anti-China?
No one knows. Here’s a video of Trump from a few days ago saying he’s willing to concede Taiwan.
With that offer on the table, who knows how much China would be willing to pay Trump. Trump is just in it for himself. He just put a trillion dollar chip on the bargaining table.
Yes, he will only get more anti-China with time I imagine. The ideological opponent to fascism is always communism. On a more material basis China is stepping on United States profits. The main target will be the prevention of BRICS membership in Latin America imo
Trump is “Russia’s bitch”. That is not true of China. Maybe China gets sloppy seconds, but it’s otherwise not changing anything.
Generally speaking Trump is not getting into an alliance with Russia, but rather joins the “multipolar” club of imperialists that want to carve out their own sphere of influence without the others interfereing. China agrees with this but there are other reasons why the interests of the US and China still clash.
I’m pretty sure the purpose of Trump’s pivot on Russia is to drive a wedge between Russia and China.
