It goes without saying, DVDs/BlueRays.
Clearly not IPV4.
Shit. I’ve been waiting for IPv6 for 20 years.
Maybe eventually my kids will have IPv6 as the common sense default and will marvel at the ingenuity of their ancestors to keep using way too few addresses for way too many devices
Funnily enough I recently had to disable ipv4 in a game because of connection issues.
My ISp shares a single IPv4 between multiple customers, NAT 444.
So my PC is on 192.168.1.4 on the LAN, my router is on 10.183.13.62 on my ISPs network and some number of customers are sharing 84.146.73.54
They don’t give out IPv6 addresses though.
I’m going to be bold. The internal combustion engine car.
There will be a tipping point where nobody wants to maintain the highly intricate manufacturing for them, and they will stop very quickly. Electric motors are the future and the transition is accelerating. We’re currently around 20% of new sales and I expect after 60-70% ICEs will just disappear from sale.
we still see a lot of 20-40yr old cars around, many daily driven. if we suddenly stop making ice cars today, its still taking a while for them to truly go away in practical terms.
Most countries will be raising taxes on fuel even more and in general it will become less available fast: gas stations, mechanics who know how to fix the ICE old timers etc. it will become a hobby thing (like old timers today already). Certain niches will keep ICE way longer (heavy construction vehicles etc) but it will suddenly become quite rare in 20 or 30 years to see a regular old ICE driven by a regular person doing regular things like commuting or so.
For heavy construction vehicles only three main factors need to align: normal replacement schedule, enough capacity for the heaviest day (which is quite predictable in many industries,) and the charging infrastructure.
The last one is a major hurdle and is holding back EVs on all levels already. In the US it is also the least likely to see improvement anytime soon
carburators arent a thing in my country for at least 30 years now but plenty of people around who still know how to work on them.
become quite rare in 20 or 30 years
yea thats what i meant. ICE won’t be going anywhere at all in 10 years, but about 30 yes i can see it
I don’t think that’s bold.
It’s already at 25% last month and 50+% in China.It’s only the timescale I’m unsure about.
A majority of Chinas EVs outside of Shenzhen are hybrids. Unless youre counting vespas, there’s way more electrics.
I think the EU has plans to stop the sale of ICEs in 10 years, so… that could start a snowball effect.
I believe this… But the USA being an exception
They are rolling coal in the wasteland while civilised people live in the clouds, jetsons style
Please be “ai”… Please be “ai”…
Nope. The next super mario will have goombas again, and they will have AI again
All of it, humanity will be wiped out in the Second Emu War, and birds don’t need phones.
Birds aren’t real
I have no idea but hopefully the ‘Proprietary’ branch of human technology is discontinued.
If things continue on the path they’re already on, it will get worse, sadly. At least that’s my opinion. I really hope it dies out.
ha fat chance. unless capitalism collapses in 10 years.
which ha, fat chance.
The way shit is headed, probably vaccines.
*in the US
I believe it’s propagating outside of the US
No, we have a vaccine for that.
Not disappear entirely, but most households won’t own desktop computers or HDDs.
Most people connected to the Internet today have never owned a desktop computer nor an HDD. A crazy amount of people have been introduced to computing with smartphones.
As a homelabber, this makes me sad. Perhaps enshittification will push people back into home/local computing.
homelabbing isnt even my gripe with it. its not ever interacting with computers on your own terms, only on theirs. smartphones are a black box.
i see ads, artificial annoyances, and human right violations by technology increasing in lockstep with the reduction of our collective control over computing.
I agree. I’m also very sad when I see small kids watching YouTube videos on tablets; that’s pretty much all they do.
Where’s the fun of tinkering? Trying to build things? Trying fixing problems, such as formatting?
Kids don’t even have the concept of files and folders. We’re raising a generation of digital slaves.
Honestly I don’t think that’s tru. There were very few kids who truly tinkered with their computers in the old days too - first because not many kids had computers in the first place, and then because computers started being useful without any tinkering. There are still a lot of youths (12-16) today who are flashing LineageOS on their phone or installing Linux on their Chromebook, or whatever. I know because they keep flooding the NixOS Telegram chat that I’m managing - and I try to welcome them with open arms!
smartphones are a black box.
Many Android phones still have a bit of that tinkering ability to them (you kinda have access to the file system, and you can root them/flash custom android distros), but it’s quickly diminishing because (1) OEMs are locking the bootloaders, (2) it’s getting harder and harder to get hardware working without proprietary OEM hacks, (3) bank apps and other proprietary garbage that’s becoming a necessity in modern times refuses to run on an unlocked phone.
I would hope, but on the whole you’d almost think they deliberately purged home computing from the mainstream consciousness, with how tragically ignorant the average person is about anything that isn’t a little poke-driven rectangle that screams at you all day.
M.2 > HDD
Social security and pensions I think.
I don’t know of any millennial or younger who assumes there will be a safety net for them at the end of the road. We just don’t trust those in charge to keep it. I’ll fight for it, I paid into it and I want others to have it, but I can’t bank on it either
There’s simply no way to keep pensions. It’s like a big pyramid scheme where new people are putting the money and old people are enjoying them; the problem is that old people are growing and they’ve been living longer, and young people are less and less.
The problem is the owners don’t pay their fair share, nothing else.
Productivity has risen to cover everything.
Fuck that, we’ll burn it all down if they take social security from us. It’s largely paid from existing taxes as it is. We just need to get through this shit show of an administration first. That or pray Mario shows up
I’d say consumer printers
We’re running towards all digital, only a few edge cases will still require them
self-inflicted, if they played nice we would all be printing from home.
upside is less paper waste
Most of my print jobs… maybe one a month, are for either artistic reasons or for making labels to stick on things.
I do still print tickets out of habit though, just in case I lose/forget my phone or drain the battery that day, though this has literally never happened.
I’ve found myself needing to print something only 1-2 times per year, so I just go to the library to do it. E-waste-wise, this change is for the better
Luckily we’ve invited 10 new gadgets for you to make sure we meet our e waste goals
3G networks
I feel like DVDs/Blurays already disappeared 10 years ago and are now making a comeback. Same for CDs. Streaming services don’t let you own anything, and if they pull something down, you’re SOL. Self hosting Plex and ripping my own disks has given me a level of freedom not possible with netflix et. al. Especially since DVDs are considered garbage to most people now, you can set up your own streaming service for you and your friends and family for cheap. No piracy necessary.
Hopefully fax machines, but these things seem incapable of dying.
Unless you’re trying to use one. Then they’re always broken.
German government has entered the
chatlandlineFun? Fact, I’m in my mid twenties and have never used them.
i havent seen one in years
Well obvious umbrella. It’s bad luck to open you in the house, and we don’t keep the fax machines outside.
hopefully ai
We call it AI now but machine learning algorithms have been around for 70 years now and basically run the world
AI technologie could be nice. LLM and Diffusion models ruining the Internet with fake information and Fake art, being over hyped as AI that will change the world, all while burning up unimaginable amounts of energy? Yeah, I also hope it goes away.
No way. We will build grids and power for eventual AI takeover of common employees like fast food. It’s a sad future.
Thus converting a workforce of poorly paid fast food employees into one of highly paid utility workers.
I don’t think we will be losing optical disks ever.
If burned properly they hold storage for a very long time without data loss. IIRC Facebook burns optical disks for old photographs and instead of having a hard drive array or tape library they had a RAID based optical disk system.
Optical disks are great, but not for the daily user since most media content is online and most storage is judged on being rewritable.
If burned properly they hold storage for a very long time without data loss
They also need very particular storage conditions (temperature and humidity in particular), otherwise they will discrot. But yeah they are likely to store data for longer than solid-state media at least.
i completely agree, though i hope that eventually we can settle on something like Cerabyte for long term archival storage.
Tablets.
The market for them is very thin. With phones getting bigger and convertible laptops being more lightweight I don’t see much market for tablets.
Which is a shame because it’s s good format for comic reading and more durable than a convertible laptop (they always break by the hinges) but I think in ten years it will be quite hard to find a tablet for sale.
Honestly I would say it might go the other way with laptops disappearing and being replaced with tablets.
The operating systems and software on tablets is getting ever more capable even for productivity stuff. Add to that newer generations growing up while using mostly smartphones and maybe sometimes a computer and I believe if having to decide they would choose a tablet over a laptop. In general the line between laptops and tablets is getting a bit blurry with windows based tablet PC’s and tablets that come with a keyboard cover.
Unless digital artists are replaced with AI entirely, I don’t see that happening. iPads (unfortunately) are kind of the golden standard there. If anything I expect drawing tablets without screens to disappear.
RIP PDAs with keyboard. Another form factor I miss
