dualmindblade [he/him]

  • 11 Posts
  • 99 Comments
Joined 5 years ago
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Cake day: September 21st, 2020

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  • Yeah Tylenol is a trash med that would never get approved today, especially not OTC. Unfortunately it’s one of the only things they let pregnant women take for pain. We need more research into the opiate drugs, there are atypical mu agonists that actually don’t carry as much addiction and overdose risk (gee I wonder why these didn’t get discovered when they were looking for a replacement for heroin/morphine), kappa antagonism might be useful in chronic pain, and delta agonists seems promising as well.





  • The very first paragraph of the final report from the National Security Commission on Emerging Biotechnology, a PDF that took 3 years and presumably millions of dollars to create

    Americans are already familiar with how the Chinese government conducts economic warfare with crucial technologies such as semiconductors: corner the supply chain, then choke it to weaken the United States. But this is not the last time Beijing will run this play, and it is not even the most dangerous version of it.

    Imagine a not-so-distant future where researchers in Shanghai develop a breakthrough drug that can eliminate malignant cells, effectively ending cancer as we know it. But when tensions over Taiwan reach a breaking point, the Chinese Communist Party (CCP), the strategic apparatus of the Chinese government, hoards the treatment under the guise of national security, cutting off supply to the United States. After years of access, this lifesaving drug is immediately in shortage, requiring doctors to ration it while American biotechnology companies scramble to reconstitute production in the United States. The streets and social media overflow with people demanding that the United States abandon Taiwan. The Administration faces an agonizing choice between geopolitical priorities and public health.

    This scenario is fiction. But something like it could soon become reality as biotechnology takes center stage in the unfolding strategic competition between the United States and People’s Republic of China (China).



  • This is pure speculation but I’m 90% sure that the NVidia drop had nothing to do with Deepseek R1 and was actually insider trading on the “news” that Trump was considering a tariff on Taiwanese chips.

    First, R1 was released on the 20th, 5 days before the stock dropped. It wasn’t at all a secret, basically it was the talk of the town that whole week and their capabilities claims were shown to be solid very early on by many many people running independent benchmarks. But the market didn’t react.

    Second, the big AI companies want all the compute they can get, they aren’t satisfied with training 10 or 100 or 1000 times more quickly, this is why they’re talking about trillion dollar data centers with nuclear reactors. Also of note, R1 was trained on Nvidia TPUs with the same amount of vram as the H100s. You couldn’t cheaply train such a model on any other brand of hardware, demand for Nvidia products isn’t going anywhere.

    Third, if anything it’s the AI software companies that would take a big drop, they’re the ones who are supposedly spooked and scrambling to replicate R1 internally. The major software only players took only a small hit but recovered quickly, that would be Microsoft and Meta. Google is also a hardware company, they’re trying to move some of their chip fabs to TMSC but their TPUs are made by Samsung. They took a small hit and have not yet recovered. AMD is a hardware company, they have fabs all over including sourcing from TMSC, same story. Intel, a similar company, no change whatsoever, they don’t use TMSC at all. Nvidia took the big one, and they get ALL of their chips from… TMSC. All the action happened about simultaneously in after hours weekend trading.

    Fourth, when the tariff news dropped the market seemed to be unaffected almost as if it had already been priced in over weekend trading.









  • Very well, I’ll take that as a sort of compliment lol.

    So I guess I start where I always do, do you think a machine, in principal, has the capability to be intelligent and/or creative? If not, I really don’t have any counter, I suppose I’d be curious as to why though. Like I admit it’s possible there’s something non-physical or non-mechanistic driving our bodies that’s unknown to science. I find that very few hold this hard line opinion though, assuming you are also in that category…

    So if that’s correct, what is it about the current paradigm of machine learning that you think is missing? Is it embodiment, is it the simplicity of artificial neurons compared to biological ones, something specific about the transformer architecture, a combination of these, or something else I haven’t thought of?

    And hopefully it goes without saying, I don’t think o1-preview is a human level AGI, I merely believe that we’re getting there quite soon and without too many new architectural innovations, possibly just one or two, and none of them will be particularly groundbreaking, it’s fairly obvious what the next couple of steps will be as it was that MCTS + LLM was the next step 3 years ago.