Image is of destruction and damage inside Israel, sourced from this article.

Iran and Israel have struck each other many times over the last few days. There has been a general focus on military facilities and headquarters by both sides, though Israel has also struck oil facilities, civilian structures and hospitals, and in return for this, Iran has struck major scientific centers and the Haifa oil facilities.

Israel appears to have three main aims. First, to collapse the Iranian state, either through shock and breakdown by killing enough senior officials, or via some sort of internal military coup. Second, to try and destroy Iranian nuclear sites and underground missile cities, or at least to paralyze them long enough to achieve the first and third goals. And third, to bring the US into a direct conflict with Iran. This is because the US better equipped to fight them than Israel is (though victory would still not be guaranteed depending on what Iran chooses to do).

Iranian nuclear facilities are hidden deep underground (800 meters), far beyond the depth range of even the most powerful bunker busters (~70 meters or so), and built such that the visible ground entrances are horizontally far away in an unknown direction from the actual underground chambers. Only an extremely competent full-scale American bombing force all simultaneously using multiple of the most powerful conventional (perhaps even nuclear) bunker busters could even hypothetically hope to breach them (and we have seen how, in practice, American bunker busters have largely failed to impair or deter Ansarallah). There are several analysts on both sides who have concluded that it is entirely impossible to physically prevent Iran from building nukes.

I fully expect the US to join the war. I believe the current ambiguity is a deliberate invention of the US while they work to move their military assets into position, and as soon as they are ready, the US will start bombing Iran. After that, Iran’s leadership must - if they haven’t already - harden their hearts, and strike back with no fear, or risk following the path of Libya, Syria, and Iraq, either into either surrender, occupation, or annihilation. Every day where they do not possess a nuke is a day where lives are being lost and cities are being bombed.

Last week’s thread is here.
The Imperialism Reading Group is here.

Please check out the RedAtlas!

The bulletins site is here. Currently not used.
The RSS feed is here. Also currently not used.

Israel-Palestine Conflict

If you have evidence of Israeli crimes and atrocities that you wish to preserve, there is a thread here in which to do so.

Sources on the fighting in Palestine against Israel. In general, CW for footage of battles, explosions, dead people, and so on:

UNRWA reports on Israel’s destruction and siege of Gaza and the West Bank.

English-language Palestinian Marxist-Leninist twitter account. Alt here.
English-language twitter account that collates news.
Arab-language twitter account with videos and images of fighting.
English-language (with some Arab retweets) Twitter account based in Lebanon. - Telegram is @IbnRiad.
English-language Palestinian Twitter account which reports on news from the Resistance Axis. - Telegram is @EyesOnSouth.
English-language Twitter account in the same group as the previous two. - Telegram here.

English-language PalestineResist telegram channel.
More telegram channels here for those interested.

Russia-Ukraine Conflict

Examples of Ukrainian Nazis and fascists
Examples of racism/euro-centrism during the Russia-Ukraine conflict

Sources:

Defense Politics Asia’s youtube channel and their map. Their youtube channel has substantially diminished in quality but the map is still useful.
Moon of Alabama, which tends to have interesting analysis. Avoid the comment section.
Understanding War and the Saker: reactionary sources that have occasional insights on the war.
Alexander Mercouris, who does daily videos on the conflict. While he is a reactionary and surrounds himself with likeminded people, his daily update videos are relatively brainworm-free and good if you don’t want to follow Russian telegram channels to get news. He also co-hosts The Duran, which is more explicitly conservative, racist, sexist, transphobic, anti-communist, etc when guests are invited on, but is just about tolerable when it’s just the two of them if you want a little more analysis.
Simplicius, who publishes on Substack. Like others, his political analysis should be soundly ignored, but his knowledge of weaponry and military strategy is generally quite good.
On the ground: Patrick Lancaster, an independent and very good journalist reporting in the warzone on the separatists’ side.

Unedited videos of Russian/Ukrainian press conferences and speeches.

Pro-Russian Telegram Channels:

Again, CW for anti-LGBT and racist, sexist, etc speech, as well as combat footage.

https://t.me/aleksandr_skif ~ DPR’s former Defense Minister and Colonel in the DPR’s forces. Russian language.
https://t.me/Slavyangrad ~ A few different pro-Russian people gather frequent content for this channel (~100 posts per day), some socialist, but all socially reactionary. If you can only tolerate using one Russian telegram channel, I would recommend this one.
https://t.me/s/levigodman ~ Does daily update posts.
https://t.me/patricklancasternewstoday ~ Patrick Lancaster’s telegram channel.
https://t.me/gonzowarr ~ A big Russian commentator.
https://t.me/rybar ~ One of, if not the, biggest Russian telegram channels focussing on the war out there. Actually quite balanced, maybe even pessimistic about Russia. Produces interesting and useful maps.
https://t.me/epoddubny ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/boris_rozhin ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/mod_russia_en ~ Russian Ministry of Defense. Does daily, if rather bland updates on the number of Ukrainians killed, etc. The figures appear to be approximately accurate; if you want, reduce all numbers by 25% as a ‘propaganda tax’, if you don’t believe them. Does not cover everything, for obvious reasons, and virtually never details Russian losses.
https://t.me/UkraineHumanRightsAbuses ~ Pro-Russian, documents abuses that Ukraine commits.

Pro-Ukraine Telegram Channels:

Almost every Western media outlet.
https://discord.gg/projectowl ~ Pro-Ukrainian OSINT Discord.
https://t.me/ice_inii ~ Alleged Ukrainian account with a rather cynical take on the entire thing.

  • BigBoyKarlLiebknecht [he/him, comrade/them]English
    90•4 hours ago

    Still in awe of how shit UK military security is. Palestine Action broke into the RAF base that underpins Britain’s global air power projection, minced around on e-scooters, disabled multiple strategic assets, and left without being caught. This, while the UK is potentially days from joining a regional war in the Middle East and still deep in a proxy war with Russia. Given this, the Heathrow power incident, airport drones, etc,. there seems to be a very real window for adversaries to exploit and cause significant disruption inside the UK - largely unopposed.

  • JamesConeZone [they/them]English
    46•4 hours ago

    Unclear if this is accurate (found on Twitter so take with grain of salt), but interesting to see Iran’s strategy of draining interceptor missiles laid out like this.

  • cinnaa42 [none/use name]English
    68•5 hours ago

    Israeli media: Kan Channel: There is a hint in Israel this evening that ultimately Trump will not decide to join the fight against Iran. It is no longer clear in Israel what Trump wants to do, and they are even using the word “puzzle”

    tbh this makes me think they’re about to start striking, feels like a feint

  • LoveWitch [he/him, comrade/them]English
    84•5 hours ago

    This is a war that Iran cannot lose.

    Iran will not be another Iraq, ruined by decades of sanctions because (1) it’s already adjusted to sanctions and (2) Russia and china are its partners.

    Iran won’t be defeated by missiles alone. Even if they lose their nuclear program… so what? That’s the status quo. Iran doesn’t have nukes now. Nothing actually changes.

    Iran won’t be invaded by ground forces. Israel can’t do it and likely even America couldn’t do it. Iran is strong and has backing. It would be like Afghanistan except against a modern fighting force. America couldn’t even do Afghanistan 2.0 right now, it cannot invade Iran.

    Iran won’t be bombed into submission and face a regime change. It’s clear the mood of the people isn’t there.

    Iran has won. It’s a question of how many civilians get killed before the west acknowledges this.

  • companero [he/him]English
    62•4 hours ago

    5.1 magnitude earthquake near Semnan, Iran. 250km away from Fordow, and too big to be from bunker busters, I think? Spot on for a nuclear test, though…

    Even if Iran doesn’t have nukes and this was a gift given by Allah himself, they should just lie and say they did a successful nuclear test.

    Edit: The recorded depth of the epicenter was allegedly 13km. If that’s true, it’s too deep to be a nuclear test (I think). sicko-wistful

  • Awoo [she/her]English
    66•5 hours ago

    Some Palestine Action activists have taken a couple of British air-to-air refuelling tankers out of action with a bit of red paint.

    Security review launched after activists break into RAF base

    A security review has been launched across UK military bases after pro-Palestinian activists broke into RAF Brize Norton and sprayed two military planes with red paint.

    spoiler

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cx24nppdx0lo

    Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer condemned the action as “disgraceful”, saying it was an “act of vandalism”.

    Footage posted online by Palestine Action on Friday showed two people inside the Oxfordshire airbase in darkness, with one riding on a scooter up to an Airbus Voyager and spraying paint into its jet engine.

    South East counter terrorism police later confirmed its specialist officers were investigating the incident alongside Thames Valley Police and the Ministry of Defence (MoD).

    Downing Street said the incident had not blocked any planned aircraft movements or stopped any operations.

    Defence Secretary John Healey said he was “really disturbed” by the incident and had ordered an investigation and the wider security review.

    Palestine Action said the activists evaded security and claimed they had put the air-to-air refuelling tankers “out of service”.

    However, RAF engineers are assessing the damage and a defence source told the BBC they did not expect the incident to affect operations.

    In a statement, a Palestine Action spokesperson said: “Despite publicly condemning the Israeli government, Britain continues to send military cargo, fly spy planes over Gaza and refuel US and Israeli fighter jets.”

    Counter-terror police said the incident happened in the early hours of Friday and added enquiries were “ongoing to establish the exact circumstances”.

    Thames Valley Police earlier said it had received a report about people gaining access to the base and causing criminal damage.

    “Inquiries are ongoing to locate and arrest those responsible,” the force said.

    RAF Brize Norton serves as the hub for UK strategic air transport and refuelling, including flights to RAF Akrotiri in Cyprus. The air force has conducted reconnaissance flights over Gaza out of the Cyprus base.

    The base is encircled by a large perimeter fence, with security camera and sensors in the area in addition to manned security checkpoints. Patrols around the base are also carried out from time to time.

    But a defence source said these measures would not have been able to provide complete cover around the large airbase.

    Palestine Action has engaged in similar activity since the start of the current war in Gaza, predominantly targeting arms companies. In May, it claimed responsibility for the daubing of a US military plane in Ireland.

    The group said the activists who entered RAF Brize Norton used repurposed fire extinguishers to spray red paint into the planes’ engines.

    It also said they caused “further damage” using crowbars - though this is not visible in the bodycam footage it provided.

    Video shows the activists then roaming around the airbase.

    The protesters did not spray paint on the Vespina aircraft - used by the prime minister for international travel - which was also on the base.

    The MoD told the BBC that RAF Voyager aircraft had not been involved in refuelling or supporting Israeli Air Force jets.

    A spokesman said Voyagers have been used in the Middle East to refuel RAF Typhoon jets involved in the ongoing international efforts to tackle the so-called Islamic State group in eastern Iraq and Syria.

    They have also been used in the Red Sea in the past in operations against Yemen’s Houthi rebels.

    Lord West, Labour minister for UK security and former head of the Royal Navy, said earlier that while he was not aware of the full details, the break-in was “extremely worrying”.

    “We can’t allow thing like this to happen at all,” he told BBC Radio 4’s Today programme, adding that breaches like it were “really a problem” for national security.

    Conservative leader Kemi Badenoch said the security breach was “deeply concerning”.

    “This is not lawful protest, it is politically motivated criminality,” she said in a statement.

    “We must stop tolerating terrorist or extremist groups that seek to undermine our society.”

    Greg Bagwell - a former RAF deputy commander - said that in targeting the Voyager, the activists picked “a strange target”.

    Air Marshall Bagwell, now a distinguished fellow at the Royal United Services Institute (Rusi), told the BBC “those aircraft do not do what these protesters think they do. They’re largely used for moving passengers or fuel”.

    He added that Voyagers had “the wrong connectors” that would stop them being used to help refuel Israeli or US jets, as the action group suggested.

    But he said if the activists “wanted to create an effect, they’ve clearly done that”.

    Shadow armed forces minister Mark Francois told the BBC any attempt to interfere with the engines of large aircraft was “totally reprehensible”.

    He added there were “serious questions for the MoD to answer” about how protesters were able to “gain access to what is supposed to be a secure RAF airbase”.

    The local Liberal Democrat MP Charlie Maynard described the activists’ actions as “stupid and dangerous”.

    He said the investigations should establish “how this happened and what can be done in future to make sure no further breaches occur”.