A reminder that as the US continues to threaten countries around the world, fedposting is to be very much avoided (even with qualifiers like “in Minecraft”) and comments containing it will be removed.

Image is of Iranians celebrating the beginning of the ceasefire under the framework of Iran’s 10 Points.

Mere hours before Trump’s 8pm Tuesday deadline yesterday, Pakistan’s government contacted Iran with a US-written proposal for a two-week ceasefire, explicitly stated to also include Lebanon, during which they would negotiate a permanent end to the war on the basis of Iran’s 10 Points. Among other things, these points include 1) maintaining strict control (joint with Oman) over Hormuz, complete with a toll; 2) the end of sanctions on Iran; 3) keeping their enriched uranium; 4) a withdrawal of US forces from the Middle East [stated by the Supreme Leadership Council but not in the 10 Points, so who knows], and 5) some plausible guarantee that Iran would never be attacked again. I’ve heard rumors that China may have prodded Iran to accept these terms.

In theory, these are relatively confident and maximalist demands. In practice, Iran has already achieved military and economic control over Hormuz and the withdrawal of many US troops and bases from the region, so at least a few of Iran’s demands are, to a greater or lesser extent, already achieved, and with little hope for an increasingly exhausted US to undo these achievements short of nukes.

A couple hours after the ceasefire, the Zionist entity began a wave of airstrikes in Lebanon, killing hundreds of civilians, as well as flying drones into Iranian airspace. This was a strange move to make even if you assume - very sensibly - that the US is completely agreement non-capable: why not agree to the ceasefire and simply pretend to negotiate for two weeks while regrouping/repairing what assets you can and then start hitting Iran again?

One theory is that the Zionists are testing to what degree Iran is actually willing to have solidarity with Lebanon and Hezbollah. While the Resistance has been relatively united since October 7th, the formation of separate peaces instead of negotiating terms as a united front has been a major exploitable weakness. Alternatively, it’s been proposed that the US didn’t even consider using the ceasefire to regroup and deceive Iran, and that Trump merely wanted a way to chicken out of his threat on Iran’s electrical grid - the fact that US officials have since stated that Iran’s 10 Points were not the same ones they agreed to is a point supporting this, I suppose. If the conflict resumes and Trump does not deliver another 48 hour deadline (and/or makes it something silly like a month from now) then this could be the explanation.

From Iran, I am getting the sense that a lot is happening behind the scenes. Statements from top officials like Araghchi have stated quite plainly that there will be no ceasefire and no negotiations unless the Zionists stop attacking Lebanon, but as of ~24 hours after the ceasefire began, there has been no significant military response from Iran yet. There have apparently been phone calls between Araghchi and numerous regional officials, but it is unknown to what end. All the while, the global economic situation continues to deteriorate. Over the next week or two, the last tankers that left Hormuz before it closed will arrive at their destinations. If the missile exchanges begin once more, then the West, much like most of the rest of the world, will be experiencing all sorts of fuel, energy, food, and product shortages while trying to justify why they broke the ceasefire to kill more Lebanese civilians.

Last week’s thread is here.
The Imperialism Reading Group is here.

Please check out the RedAtlas!

The bulletins site is here. Currently not used.
The RSS feed is here. Also currently not used.

The Zionist Entity's Genocide of Palestine

If you have evidence of Zionist crimes and atrocities that you wish to preserve, there is a thread here in which to do so.

Sources on the fighting in Palestine against the temporary Zionist entity. In general, CW for footage of battles, explosions, dead people, and so on:

UNRWA reports on the Zionists’ destruction and siege of Gaza and the West Bank.

English-language Palestinian Marxist-Leninist twitter account. Alt here.
English-language twitter account that collates news.
Arab-language twitter account with videos and images of fighting.
English-language (with some Arab retweets) Twitter account based in Lebanon. - Telegram is @IbnRiad.
English-language Palestinian Twitter account which reports on news from the Resistance Axis. - Telegram is @EyesOnSouth.
English-language Twitter account in the same group as the previous two. - Telegram here.

Mirrors of Telegram channels that have been erased by Zionist censorship.

Russia-Ukraine Conflict

Examples of Ukrainian Nazis and fascists
Examples of racism/euro-centrism during the Russia-Ukraine conflict

Sources:

Defense Politics Asia’s youtube channel and their map. Their youtube channel has substantially diminished in quality but the map is still useful.
Moon of Alabama, which tends to have interesting analysis. Avoid the comment section.
Understanding War and the Saker: reactionary sources that have occasional insights on the war.
Alexander Mercouris, who does daily videos on the conflict. While he is a reactionary and surrounds himself with likeminded people, his daily update videos are relatively brainworm-free and good if you don’t want to follow Russian telegram channels to get news. He also co-hosts The Duran, which is more explicitly conservative, racist, sexist, transphobic, anti-communist, etc when guests are invited on, but is just about tolerable when it’s just the two of them if you want a little more analysis.
Simplicius, who publishes on Substack. Like others, his political analysis should be soundly ignored, but his knowledge of weaponry and military strategy is generally quite good.
On the ground: Patrick Lancaster, an independent and very good journalist reporting in the warzone on the separatists’ side.

Unedited videos of Russian/Ukrainian press conferences and speeches.

Pro-Russian Telegram Channels:

Again, CW for anti-LGBT and racist, sexist, etc speech, as well as combat footage.

https://t.me/aleksandr_skif ~ DPR’s former Defense Minister and Colonel in the DPR’s forces. Russian language.
https://t.me/Slavyangrad ~ A few different pro-Russian people gather frequent content for this channel (~100 posts per day), some socialist, but all socially reactionary. If you can only tolerate using one Russian telegram channel, I would recommend this one.
https://t.me/s/levigodman ~ Does daily update posts.
https://t.me/patricklancasternewstoday ~ Patrick Lancaster’s telegram channel.
https://t.me/gonzowarr ~ A big Russian commentator.
https://t.me/rybar ~ One of, if not the, biggest Russian telegram channels focussing on the war out there. Actually quite balanced, maybe even pessimistic about Russia. Produces interesting and useful maps.
https://t.me/epoddubny ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/boris_rozhin ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/mod_russia_en ~ Russian Ministry of Defense. Does daily, if rather bland updates on the number of Ukrainians killed, etc. The figures appear to be approximately accurate; if you want, reduce all numbers by 25% as a ‘propaganda tax’, if you don’t believe them. Does not cover everything, for obvious reasons, and virtually never details Russian losses.
https://t.me/UkraineHumanRightsAbuses ~ Pro-Russian, documents abuses that Ukraine commits.

Pro-Ukraine Telegram Channels:

Almost every Western media outlet.
https://discord.gg/projectowl ~ Pro-Ukrainian OSINT Discord.
https://t.me/ice_inii ~ Alleged Ukrainian account with a rather cynical take on the entire thing.

  • Tervell [he/him]@hexbear.netEnglish
    75·
    22 days ago

    https://xcancel.com/ripplebrain/status/2042445381699506683

    Today, CBS posted an article and a video interview with an American soldier that provided new details on the destruction by Iran of a command center in Kuwait on March 1st that killed six US military personnel. Most have focused on the revelation (not actually new) that this command center wasn’t “fortified,” as Pete Hegseth put it, and on the accusations of negligence by the DoW. But a few readers noticed something curious in the online version of the article. Buried in the wreckage of the command center is what appears to be a gravity bomb. This bomb bears a strong resemblance to a Soviet-era FAB or RBK 250. What is this bomb doing there?

    As incredible as it may seem, this may be the first hard evidence we’ve gotten of the rumors that the Iranian Air Force conducted a series of bombing runs on US military sites in the first phase of the war. This is backed up by an overlooked CENTCOM press release that referenced “attacks from Iranian aircraft” occurring on the 1st at the same time three F-15s were lost, officially to Kuwaiti friendly fire. The Iranian gravity bomb arsenal is primarily composed of (possibly modified) Soviet models. The Iranians themselves released a video of F-4 Phantoms being loaded with munitions, and Tasnim reported they were “preparing to bomb American bases” on the 1st of March. CBS says the command center was hit by a drone. But it’s difficult to explain what an apparently Soviet bomb is doing sitting in the debris. If anyone can provide a better match for the bomb model and an explanation of what it might be doing there, please do so in the replies. The fourth image in the set is a FAB-250 variant

    the CBS article itself: https://archive.ph/qUyJY

    • Tervell [he/him]@hexbear.netEnglish
      50·
      22 days ago

      some further stuff on the article

      https://xcancel.com/policytensor/status/2042413860049576337

      Infuriating details about attack in Kuwait that killed 6 U.S. troops:

      • Unit was relocated closer to Iran
      • Post was “not a fortified position”
      • Post a “known target” to Iran, per intel
      • SecWar claim “that ‘one squeaked through’ is a falsehood”
      • Tragedy was preventable

      Important report. What have we learnt?

      • The report blows a supermassive hole in the credulous @shaneharris report about “intelligence success” and the suggested competence of CENTCOM and the Pentagon. Clearly, they did not anticipate the scale, sophistication and accuracy of Iranian strikes on US bases, otherwise they’d have evacuated them much sooner or hardened them.
      • Pete Hegseth is simply not up to his job of supervising the Pentagon. His incompetence is undermining the US military military. His head should be first to roll. I am moderately hopeful that this is going to happen once the bickering and finger pointing starts in earnest after the humiliating peace and acceptance of Iran as a great power.
      • The most important issue raised by the report is related to the question of base vulnerability. If US bases are so vulnerable to a lesser great power like Iran, then US bases in Asia are vastly more vulnerable to the strongest power in the system, esp given that the US is a strategic defender in Asia and it is China that will decide when to go meaning that they will time it to maximize their war preparedness. (On this question, see my “The Problem of the Strategic Defender.”)
      • The question of hardening of bases (HAS) is now of paramount importance bc deterrence in Asia is a direct function of base survivability. Is it possible to harden US bases in Asia enough to survive an all-out attack by Chinese missiles and drone? Deterrence in Asia is largely depends on the answer to this question.
      • Note that the chief of US air force is opposed to HAS. This is a debate we must have rn. The entire blob is failing to grapple with this question. This has the potential to backfire dramatically more spectacularly than the intelligence failure re Iran.

      https://xcancel.com/masonjozer/status/2042415404971184409

      Unless the US figures out a major breakthrough in AD and for low cost the only way is to go underground

      I have been thinking about the same thing! The Iranians have proven that, just as the US navy has to rely increasingly on undersea assets, you must find shelter underground.

      https://x.com/ripplebrain/status/2042315091731714067

      see also https://hexbear.net/comment/7084121

      • subversive_dev@lemmy.mlEnglish
        36·
        22 days ago

        New Type of Guy has been everywhere in this war:

        Pro-imperialist giving the empire desperately needed sound military advice that they know will be completely ignored

      • Parzivus [any]@hexbear.netEnglish
        34·
        21 days ago

        The most important issue raised by the report is related to the question of base vulnerability. If US bases are so vulnerable to a lesser great power like Iran, then US bases in Asia are vastly more vulnerable to the strongest power in the system

        This is true but it undersells Iran a little, I think. Call it geography or mosaic defense or whatever, but there are very few countries on Earth that could withstand this level of assault from the US and not only survive, but come out in the winning position.

        It’s actually kinda interesting that the last few years have see more or less the two largest non-nuclear conflicts that could’ve happened, happen. Ukraine has obviously been supported extensively by the west, but their military was fairly large beforehand as well.

      • SevenSkalls [he/him]@hexbear.netEnglish
        12·
        22 days ago

        What would Iran do if the US puts their bases underground? They need to kick the US out of the gulf before they do that.

        EDIT: I guess that doesn’t stop them from controlling the Strait at least.

        • aanes_appreciator [he/him, comrade/them]@hexbear.netEnglish
          9·
          21 days ago

          The US would need the labour and manufacturing base necessary to do that on a scale large enough for it to be effective. Iran has mountainous terrain, a massive labour pool, and the strategic necessity for bunkers. The US gains too little for the cost.

      • Tervell [he/him]@hexbear.netEnglish
        10·
        21 days ago

        ah, okay, here’s the followup: https://xcancel.com/ripplebrain/status/2042651196347801713

        A lot of accounts are sharing this image claiming it’s evidence that the Iranian air force dropped a bomb at a US command post. It’s not. Militaries, especially the US, use inert ordnance regularly as decoration. You can see an inert bomb outside the building in an old photo.

        Deleted my post on this subject. The question is which of these two is more likely:

        • The Iranian Air Force completed a bombing run on the site, and the bomb in the image was a dud that came to rest in the debris with minimal damage
        • It was a trophy bomb, and the paint burned off in the fire after the structure was hit by a drone

        Imo the second is more likely. It’s not definitive because there’s supporting evidence for Iranian air attacks in Kuwait at that time, and I hedged in the post with words like “may” and “could have,” asking for other plausible explanations for the bomb’s presence in that location. But I deleted the post because any nuance I could add in the replies will probably go mostly unseen. Ultimately it would be too insane of a coincidence for this exact structure to have old Soviet trophy bombs sitting around outside it and for the old Soviet bomb sitting outside it to be a dud from an Iranian attack. Crazy that we have photos of that building from years ago.