Image is of the Central Bank of Iran.
My weekly preamble is in spoiler tags below.
preamble
The so-called “Economic D-Day” is set to start this week, which is the term trotted out by the US to describe what it regards as the most crushing sanctions ever unveiled in all of human history against a foreign state. Up to me writing this, nobody appears to have many guesses as to what precisely this would entail, but a confirmed aspect is secondary sanctions - i.e. the sanctioning of any country that does business with Iran. China is Iran’s largest trading partner, and has previously explicitly ordered their oil/refining companies to keep receiving and processing Iranian oil regardless of US sanctions. Assuming China maintains this relationship, and the ever-sanctioned Russia does likewise, it’s difficult to see how these sanctions could not only 1) be significantly more effective than the current sanctions on Iran, which are very substantial and yet are being successfully sidestepped and mitigated, albeit at a meaningful cost to Iran’s citizens, and 2) outright bring Iran to a position of surrender when it is in the midst of an existential war. The only conceivable way would be if the US did genuinely sanction China in response, which even the US, in this phase of baffling idiocy, is not yet so stupid as to attempt. Other suggestions I’ve seen is that the sanctions aren’t so much about trying to keep China away as much as stopping the Gulf states from ever economically, politically, and indeed militarily reconciling with Iran; essentially saying “At the end of this war, you may not be on our side, but you certainly won’t be on Iran’s either.”
Nonetheless, ever since Iran militarily proved themselves back in March and April, and, in particular, their missile cities proved effectively indestructible, I and many others came to the conclusion that the only way to destroy Iran would be some kind of internal political or economic crisis - likely both, going hand-in-hand - and it appears that US war planners now agree. A resumption of missile fire is still plenty possible, mind, but if I was the US, it would be in support of that hypothetical internal crisis, were it ever to start, rather than putting the cart before the horse. Therefore, one does have to take the threat of some kind of overwhelming economic offensive at least a little seriously, simply because it’s the only non-nuclear vector left that has even the vaguest possibility of success. From all the analysts I take seriously, I’m getting signals that trend towards optimism that Iran will survive whatever the Bessents of the world can cook up; however, mere survival should not be Iran’s medium/long term goal. Imaginary tankers transiting Hormuz notwithstanding, and with global diesel prices now skyrocketing notwithstanding, it’s still unclear to me what the end result would be if Iran and the US simply decided to stop fighting from now on and apply maximum sanctions/energy disruption for weeks, months, or even years on end. Would China eventually pressure Iran to make concessions, for example? Could a critical portion of Iran’s population, or a segment of the Iranian bourgeoisie, be tempted to try and overthrow the government to end the pain, long before the economy truly internally collapsed?
That’s likely why, in response to the proposed sanctions on Iran, there have been signals coming out of the country (as always, hard to verify in the fog of invented/misattributed statements and exaggerations) that Iran could counterstrike by attacking US economic interests in the region - which, if correctly done, sounds much better to me than simply sitting there with thousands of missiles not being fired while you gradually bleed out over the medium term, hoping that the other guy will bleed out first. This would be a pretty profound step for Iran, though. Aside from maintaining the Hormuz blockade, they have always held the (somewhat strategically dubious) “moral high ground” of being the guy to respond to military attacks, perhaps due to an anxiety of being seen as a warmonger either internally or in countries throughout the world, not least their major allies.
So after all that bloviating, I have little more to offer than a shrug in terms of my predictions about what comes next.
Last week’s thread is here.
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The Zionist Entity's Genocide of Palestine
Sources on the fighting in Palestine against the temporary Zionist entity. In general, CW for footage of battles, explosions, dead people, and so on:
UNRWA reports on the Zionists’ destruction and siege of Gaza and the West Bank.
English-language Palestinian Marxist-Leninist twitter account. Alt here.
English-language twitter account that collates news.
Arab-language twitter account with videos and images of fighting.
English-language (with some Arab retweets) Twitter account based in Lebanon. - Telegram is @IbnRiad.
English-language Palestinian Twitter account which reports on news from the Resistance Axis. - Telegram is @EyesOnSouth.
English-language Twitter account in the same group as the previous two. - Telegram here.
Mirrors of Telegram channels that have been erased by Zionist censorship.
Russia-Ukraine Conflict
Examples of Ukrainian Nazis and fascists
Examples of racism/euro-centrism during the Russia-Ukraine conflict
Sources:
Moon of Alabama, which tends to have interesting analysis. Avoid the comment section.
Understanding War and the Saker: reactionary sources that have occasional insights on the war.
Alexander Mercouris, who does daily videos on the conflict. While he is a reactionary and surrounds himself with likeminded people, his daily update videos are relatively brainworm-free and good if you don’t want to follow Russian telegram channels to get news. He also co-hosts The Duran, which is more explicitly conservative, racist, sexist, transphobic, anti-communist, etc when guests are invited on, but is just about tolerable when it’s just the two of them if you want a little more analysis.
Simplicius, who publishes on Substack. Like others, his political analysis should be soundly ignored, but his knowledge of weaponry and military strategy is generally quite good.
On the ground: Patrick Lancaster, an independent and very good journalist reporting in the warzone on the separatists’ side.
Unedited videos of Russian/Ukrainian press conferences and speeches.
Pro-Russian Telegram Channels:
Again, CW for anti-LGBT and racist, sexist, etc speech, as well as combat footage.
https://t.me/aleksandr_skif ~ DPR’s former Defense Minister and Colonel in the DPR’s forces. Russian language.
https://t.me/Slavyangrad ~ A few different pro-Russian people gather frequent content for this channel (~100 posts per day), some socialist, but all socially reactionary. If you can only tolerate using one Russian telegram channel, I would recommend this one.
https://t.me/s/levigodman ~ Does daily update posts.
https://t.me/patricklancasternewstoday ~ Patrick Lancaster’s telegram channel.
https://t.me/gonzowarr ~ A big Russian commentator.
https://t.me/rybar ~ One of, if not the, biggest Russian telegram channels focussing on the war out there. Actually quite balanced, maybe even pessimistic about Russia. Produces interesting and useful maps.
https://t.me/epoddubny ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/boris_rozhin ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/mod_russia_en ~ Russian Ministry of Defense. Does daily, if rather bland updates on the number of Ukrainians killed, etc. The figures appear to be approximately accurate; if you want, reduce all numbers by 25% as a ‘propaganda tax’, if you don’t believe them. Does not cover everything, for obvious reasons, and virtually never details Russian losses.
https://t.me/UkraineHumanRightsAbuses ~ Pro-Russian, documents abuses that Ukraine commits.
Pro-Ukraine Telegram Channels:
Almost every Western media outlet.
https://discord.gg/projectowl ~ Pro-Ukrainian OSINT Discord.
https://t.me/ice_inii ~ Alleged Ukrainian account with a rather cynical take on the entire thing.
I was scrolling my feed on company time when I’m presented with a seemingly shocking piece of newsPORTUGUESE COMMUNIST PARTY INVITES PALESTINIAN TERRORIST ORGANIZATION TO ITS YEARLY COMMNIST FESTIVAL
I checked it out and guess who it is
It’s the PFLP, which has already been invited in the past, in fact I’m pretty sure there was always PFLP stuff there since I started going in 2022, but I guess the EU voted to decide that they were terrorist so know we’ll get news like this every year.
In 2006 the party also invited representatives of the FARC to the festival, and at some point even representatives of the DPRK, obviously cuba is always there and they prepare 2 stands even (usually a drink bar and a cuban products section), anyway it’s next week I’m pretty excited.
In a sad attempt to put additional pressure on Iran, the U.S. has banned Iranians from academic exchanges and sport competitions.
‘Operation Economic Outcast’ ™️ And it’s just Iranians can no longer play basketball in the United States. GENIUS. THAT WILL FINALLY BREAK THE ISLAMIC REPUBLIC!
- Middle East Spectator
US officially removes Syria’s extremist-led government from ‘sponsors of terrorism’ list
Today’s action will help foster additional investment in Syria to promote political and economic stability,” [Scott Bessent] added.
Trump’s war on Iran is rapidly draining US navy budget, documents and interviews reveal
One Pentagon memo about navy funding seen by the Guardian warns that there are “shortfalls in payroll” accounts due to the department “raiding” them to fund combat operations.
One official and one navy contractor said non-emergency maintenance on shore-based facilities has been deferred because of the cash crunch.
that’s what the US military needs, less maintenance!
A navy official who was briefed on how the service is planning to address the shortfalls said money is shifted around in imaginative ways. “The money for payroll,” he said, “was robbed to pay for overseas contingencies and is being backfilled by money that hasn’t been spent. They are backfilling payroll so we get enough money in our paycheck.”
Inside the service, the cash shortage is no secret. “They’re just not speaking publicly about it,” said Todd Harrison, a defense analyst at the conservative American Enterprise Institute. “And I suspect that is a deliberate decision of the civilian leaders in the Pentagon, starting at secretary, that this is for political reasons, that they don’t want to look like they’re damaging future military readiness over a war that is becoming increasingly a political liability.”
The military knew the crisis was coming. In mid-May, Adm Daryl Caudle, chief of naval operations, cautioned Congress that the crunch would hit in July. “The FY ’26 budget didn’t bake in Epic Fury,”
What’s even the point of an imperial military if apparently a single imperial misadventure bankrupts you? like what are you even doing at this point, isn’t this the main thing american nationalists circlejerk about, how the mighty US military can deploy and fight anywhere, and yet when they actually try to do that they run out of steam in barely half a year!?
It’s truly wild to me how much strain this fucking war seems to have put on the imperial war machine. Not to downplay the suffering the Iranian have endured, but at the end of the day this isn’t even that intense of a campaign - this is nowhere near close to the scale of deployments in the Korean and Vietnam wars, or even Iraq, there was a little over a month of an actual proper bombardment campaign, and then a couple of months of naval blockade + occasional hitting of shoreline targets, and apparently that was enough to complete drain them? Guess the debasification hit them pretty hard
This is also pretty much a complete repudiation of that Medhurst theory about US naval power, the empire is struggling to manage a few months of a blockade of a strait, wherein they had to deploy a substantial portion of their on-duty ships to just this one task (leaving other areas with insufficient assets) and had to run them ragged to the point that the crew are starting to seek the sweet release of Poseidon, and yet these fuckers are supposed to be running some kind of global oil piracy campaign?
Look man, if running an empire is so easy why don’t YOU do it, huh?
This is also pretty much a complete repudiation of that Medhurst theory about US naval power
Calling it a theory is very generous to Medhurst, who has mostly resorted to dropping nuggets of wisdom with regards to the Peloponnesian War these days.
Supply lines are the MOST fragile aspects of the current economic system, to a ridiculous degree, A select few countries (like Iran and Yemen for example) could put their foot down and end it overnight.
Medhurst never stated that the American plan would work, just outlined what it was.
always pay your guys, otherwise they’re not your guysI hope no one gets paid, that would be very funny. Sadly, Congress would just give them more money anyway. Remember how quickly they passed that “Havana death ray” bill.
They’ll pass the Pay Every Non-Incinerated Servicemember Act, or also known as the PENIS Act
thank you, my bestest persons. for all the news! i am so much less anxious, because i meet the onslaught of news here; love you ppl, also i greatly miss mr LargePenis, i hope one day the world will be less crazy and we can hang out!
Ily
say what you will about the spanish empire but im pretty sure they literally ran out of cash 47 times before reaching this point. and the US still has money! it runs a FIAT system!
At the request of Iran, the Sultanate of Oman has stopped cooperating with the U.S. to facilitate escorted tanker movements through the southern part of the Strait of Hormuz. In the past 24 hours, no vessels have passed the Strait via the Omani route. Today, while attempting a crossing, an Indian vessel ‘HAANA’ faced warning shots from the IRGC Navy, forcing it to turn around.
- Middle East Spectator
“Israel and Syria agreed to a status quo in security matters, which Syria was on the verge of breaching by permitting Turkish troops to deploy at an airbase near Aleppo,” said Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s office in an English-language statement.
The Prime Minister’s Office said Israel “repeatedly warned Syria that such a deployment would pose a threat to Israel’s security.”
“Syria chose to ignore these warnings,” Netanyahu’s office said, adding that Israel “will not tolerate threats to its security, and would welcome a return to the status quo.”
Days without Israel starting a war with a neighbor:
0-10Following the celebration of Fidel’s centenary, the US imposes new sanctions against Cuba - BdF
The Cuban Institute of Friendship with the Peoples, which works with popular organizations, is among the targets.
Article
Shortly after the celebrations of the centenary of the leader of the Cuban revolution Fidel Castro, the United States announced on Thursday (20) the imposition of new sanctions against Cuba, targeting nine organizations and three individuals, who are accused by the government of President Donald Trump of activities against the interests of the United States.
The main target is the Cuban Institute of Friendship with the Peoples (ICAP), but the sanctions also affect the Cuban Ministry of Construction and seven other organizations. Among those sanctioned are Fernando Gonzalez Llort, president of ICAP and a member of the Cuban Five, Cuban intelligence officers arrested by the US in 1998; Noemi Ramona Rabaza Fernandez, first vice-president of ICAP; and Leima Martinez Freire, ICAP’s director for North America.
US Secretary of State Marco Rubio stated that ICAP maintains a broad network of influence within the United States, which aims to “identify, recruit, and radicalize subversives, operating under the pretext of educational or cultural exchange.”
According to him, Cuba used the events of Fidel’s centenary, celebrated on August 13, to activate this network, in order to bring sympathizers to Havana to interact with government authorities.
“Today’s designations make it clear that the Trump administration will not tolerate the Cuban regime’s efforts to fund its repression or continue its decades-long campaign of anti-American subversive activities,” Rubio stated.
Since the end of January , the United States government has severely restricted imports of oil and fuels that Cuba needs to maintain the normal functioning of the country.
Through an executive order, President Donald Trump threatens to impose sanctions on any country or company that “sells or supplies” crude oil to the island.
Energy suffocation is felt in every corner of Cuba. There are regions where families go for entire days without electricity, and when the power finally returns, it lasts only two or three hours before being cut off again.
BREAKING: Trump’s war on Iran has forced the US Navy to take money directly from its own sailors’ paychecks and other sources to cover the costs of combat operations, per Guardian citing new internal Pentagon documents.
“They’re fucked. They shot all their weapons; they trashed all their ships; they ran out of their money,” a former US military officer now working for a Navy contracting company says.
A Pentagon memo directly warns of “shortfalls in payroll” accounts due to the Department of War “raiding” them to fund combat operations, with a Navy official saying “the money for payroll was robbed to pay for overseas contingencies.” Non-emergency maintenance has already been postponed.
“The piggy bank is broken,” Retired naval officer Harlan Ullman says.
The war has depleted US munitions, wrecked Middle Eastern US bases, and left a $67 billion Iran war emergency funding request currently stalled in Congress. The US Navy’s $300 billion annual budget did not account for the Iran war.
by hormuz letter https://x.com/HormuzLetter/status/2093382964356755482
CIA must be trolling the NYT, no way that this is the real reason.
CIA Director John Ratcliffe visited Moscow this week amid U.S. intelligence concerns that Putin may not be receiving an accurate assessment of the war from his advisers, according to The New York Times.
U.S. analysts have questioned whether Putin is being fully informed about Russia’s heavy losses and stalled battlefield gains. Ratcliffe reportedly delivered this assessment to FSB chief Aleksandr Bortnikov, urging Moscow to pursue serious negotiations.
The visit contradicts Trump’s own characterization of the trip as “standard business” with “no message.”
Important edit (this changes everything): “Lithuania has demanded that the United States provide an account of the CIA director’s visit to Moscow.” -Sprinter Press
Pakistan Says Not Bound to Accept Unilateral Sanctions on Iran - Bloomberg
Pakistan said it is not “obliged to” comply with unilateral sanctions on Iran unless they are imposed by the United Nations, signaling a willingness to continue trade after the US warned of economic penalties against countries doing business with Tehran.
“Economic D-Day” is going well.
US eyes China overcapacity tariffs of 7.5% before Xi-Trump talks, Bloomberg News reports
Aug 24 (Reuters) - U.S. is set to impose a 7.5% tariff on Chinese goods over allegations of excess manufacturing capacity before a planned summit between Chinese President Xi Jinping and U.S. President Donald Trump next month, Bloomberg News reported on Monday citing people familiar with the matter. Reuters could not immediately verify the report.
It’s “overcapacity” time again, folks. 🤡 I’m sure Xi is shaking in his boots.
US designates Palestine Action a terrorist group https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cn4kzd7k2nvo
ffs
Iran says “it will soon squeeze much harder.”
https://x.com/bonzerbarry/status/2092357868771020952 (seems like xcancel got got, along with nitter…
)NBC: Iranian missile and drone attacks have inflicted unprecedented damage on U.S. intelligence posts and surveillance hardware in the Middle East that is more extensive than any destruction America’s spy agencies have endured and will cost billions of dollars to repair, according to four people with knowledge of the matter.
Russia has developed an electronic warfare system that counters Starlink:
Russia’s Volna Kupol Garant appears to be the electronic warfare system responsible for the declining effectiveness of Starlink—a development Ukrainian military officials have begun to openly admit, notes military expert and air defense historian Yuri Knutov in comments to Sputnik.
Unlike conventional jamming, which focuses on terminals, the system targets the frequencies used by Starlink satellites, the backbone of Ukrainian command and control, the expert says.
“The Starlink signal can be completely jammed - or distorted badly enough to make it unusable also for communications,” says the historian.
Yeah it doesn’t take that much to disrupt digital signals due to encoding/digital cliff effect, right? Analog is more easily degraded but harder to actually render non-functional.
