theperfidiousOrbweaver [she/her, comrade/them]

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Cake day: July 14th, 2026

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  • As embarrassing as Hormuz taxes would be for the United States and for Mr. Trump personally, monetizing safe passage would encourage Iran to allow through as many ships as possible so it can collect more tolls. And if Iran grows dependent on revenue from administering the strait, closing it in the future for political reasons becomes more difficult. Iran is already in talks with Oman about the strait’s future. Joint custodianship of the waterway could foster regional cooperation and spur Iran to demonstrate responsibility by mellowing its rhetoric and behavior. It could eventually allow Iran to rejoin the international community, conferring recognition that would make it easier for Iran to surrender its nuclear program, which functions as an alternative source of prestige. Charging tolls would benefit Iran financially, but even high-end revenue estimates would leave Iran behind given the $270 billion in war damages it has suffered. If Iran collects $6 billion to $14 billion in transit fees annually, as some estimates suggest, it could take nearly 20 years for Iran to break even on the war. Over that span, market adjustment would diminish the importance of Hormuz, as regional exporters constructed bypass pipelines and the switch to electric vehicles reduced oil demand.

    zionist-despair