Now in our second week of the conflict, we have seen continuing damage to both Israel and Iran, as well as direct US intervention which nonetheless seems to have caused limited damage to Fordow and little damage to Iran’s nuclear program. Regime change seems more elusive than ever, as even Iranians previously critical of the government now rally around it as they are attacked by two rabid imperialists at once. And Iran’s government is tentatively considering a withdrawal, or at minimum a reconsideration, of their membership to the IAEA and the NPT. And, of course, the Strait of Hormuz is still a tool in their arsenal.
A day or so on from the strike on Fordow, we have so far seen basically no change in strategy from the Iranian military as they continue to strike Israel with small barrages of missiles. Military analysts argue furiously - is this a deliberate strategy of steady attrition on Israel, or indicative of immense material constraints on Iran? Are the hits by Israel on real targets, or are they decoys? Does Iran wish to develop a nuke, or are they still hesitating? Will Iran and Yemen strike at US warships and bases in response to the attack, or will they merely continue striking only Israel?
And perhaps most importantly - will this conflict end diplomatically due to a lack of appetite for an extended war (to wit: not a peace but a 20 year armistice) or with Israel forced into major concessions including an end to their genocide? Or even with a total military/societal collapse of either side?
Last week’s thread is here. The Imperialism Reading Group is here.
Please check out the RedAtlas!
The bulletins site is here. Currently not used.
The RSS feed is here. Also currently not used.
Israel-Palestine Conflict
Sources on the fighting in Palestine against Israel. In general, CW for footage of battles, explosions, dead people, and so on:
UNRWA reports on Israel’s destruction and siege of Gaza and the West Bank.
English-language Palestinian Marxist-Leninist twitter account. Alt here.
English-language twitter account that collates news.
Arab-language twitter account with videos and images of fighting.
English-language (with some Arab retweets) Twitter account based in Lebanon. - Telegram is @IbnRiad.
English-language Palestinian Twitter account which reports on news from the Resistance Axis. - Telegram is @EyesOnSouth.
English-language Twitter account in the same group as the previous two. - Telegram here.
English-language PalestineResist telegram channel.
More telegram channels here for those interested.
Russia-Ukraine Conflict
Examples of Ukrainian Nazis and fascists
Examples of racism/euro-centrism during the Russia-Ukraine conflict
Sources:
Defense Politics Asia’s youtube channel and their map. Their youtube channel has substantially diminished in quality but the map is still useful.
Moon of Alabama, which tends to have interesting analysis. Avoid the comment section.
Understanding War and the Saker: reactionary sources that have occasional insights on the war.
Alexander Mercouris, who does daily videos on the conflict. While he is a reactionary and surrounds himself with likeminded people, his daily update videos are relatively brainworm-free and good if you don’t want to follow Russian telegram channels to get news. He also co-hosts The Duran, which is more explicitly conservative, racist, sexist, transphobic, anti-communist, etc when guests are invited on, but is just about tolerable when it’s just the two of them if you want a little more analysis.
Simplicius, who publishes on Substack. Like others, his political analysis should be soundly ignored, but his knowledge of weaponry and military strategy is generally quite good.
On the ground: Patrick Lancaster, an independent and very good journalist reporting in the warzone on the separatists’ side.
Unedited videos of Russian/Ukrainian press conferences and speeches.
Pro-Russian Telegram Channels:
Again, CW for anti-LGBT and racist, sexist, etc speech, as well as combat footage.
https://t.me/aleksandr_skif ~ DPR’s former Defense Minister and Colonel in the DPR’s forces. Russian language.
https://t.me/Slavyangrad ~ A few different pro-Russian people gather frequent content for this channel (~100 posts per day), some socialist, but all socially reactionary. If you can only tolerate using one Russian telegram channel, I would recommend this one.
https://t.me/s/levigodman ~ Does daily update posts.
https://t.me/patricklancasternewstoday ~ Patrick Lancaster’s telegram channel.
https://t.me/gonzowarr ~ A big Russian commentator.
https://t.me/rybar ~ One of, if not the, biggest Russian telegram channels focussing on the war out there. Actually quite balanced, maybe even pessimistic about Russia. Produces interesting and useful maps.
https://t.me/epoddubny ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/boris_rozhin ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/mod_russia_en ~ Russian Ministry of Defense. Does daily, if rather bland updates on the number of Ukrainians killed, etc. The figures appear to be approximately accurate; if you want, reduce all numbers by 25% as a ‘propaganda tax’, if you don’t believe them. Does not cover everything, for obvious reasons, and virtually never details Russian losses.
https://t.me/UkraineHumanRightsAbuses ~ Pro-Russian, documents abuses that Ukraine commits.
Pro-Ukraine Telegram Channels:
Almost every Western media outlet.
https://discord.gg/projectowl ~ Pro-Ukrainian OSINT Discord.
https://t.me/ice_inii ~ Alleged Ukrainian account with a rather cynical take on the entire thing.
Comrades, I hate to say it but
Did trump just play 5D chess?
A bunker buster strike to appease the Israelis that didn’t bust any bunkers and an arranged counter strike that didn’t strike nothing and no war in the Middle East but the Israel lobby can’t complain?
If the above is true, and I don’t know right know if I believe it is, then this is a masterpiece of stringing thread through eyes of needles.
How about give it a week or 5 and then ask something like this
The nothing ever happens gang is getting real cocky
Well well well would you look at the time copium
The thing is, how sustainable is this for Iran long term? Last time round in 2020, Iran lost their best general, and responded by damaging a few US military bases. This time around, the US dropped 420 000lbs/190 500kg of bombs on Iran’s most prized state assets, while Iran fired off 14 old SCUD C based missiles in a symbolic strike and didn’t damage anything. I uderstand why Iran chooses to respond in this way, but it’s still a very unbalanced exchange.
It’s unbalanced, but isn’t the whole dynamic between the US and Iran unbalanced? The very top of Iran’s escalation ladder is destroying the Gulf’s capacity to produce oil and closing the Strait. The US top rung is… a nuclear holocaust of Iran that kills tens of millions of people? I feel like the inherent imbalance in the dynamic means the response is going to be unbalanced.
Edit: I am admittedly bullish on the idea that Iran will package a peace deal with one for Gaza, so if this leads to that then all’s well that ends well, I guess.
I would be bullish on peace deals too if they were with literally anybody other than The Great Satan and its little spawn. Ceasefires and peace deals with Israel are suicidal. As they say, you do not negotiate with terrorists. There can be no peace in the region until Israel gets got.
Edit: FUCK
Any peace deal with israel is going to be the same as the minsk agreements, a delaying tactic for the empire to rearm. If Iran takes the initiative to develop nuclear weapons and stockpile even more ballistic missiles in that time, then there’s still a chance of deterrence. If they behave like Russia prior to the Ukraine war and keep trusting the west for diplomacy, then at that point I don’t know what to say.
It’s unbalanced if you assume Fordow suffered serious damage, which is not in evidence
We have been battering the US’s biggest asset in the area already and are not slowing down. I think the symbolic strike was good enough on US bases and as much as I’d love to see countless US babykillers dead, I think our focus should be ending the zionist regime first.
It does seem a real danger of the US and zionists salami-slicing their way up their own escalation ladder while leaving Iran’s response muted.
Iran unfortunately doesn’t have the deterrence and options that the US has. Their big escalation is their only escalation while the US has a lot of escalations it can choose from. If Iran fires off closing the straits and all that it will mean war and it will mean damage to vital allies like China economically while the west will be better able to absorb the shock (western proles being well trained will only change Republicans for Democrats in response in the mid-terms and only if the gas price hikes last for many months and close enough to the midterms themselves).
This leaves the US much more able to sell Iran on the idea that they don’t want to do that so had better not pull that lever as it’s not an even escalatory response to the US bombing them.
Iran is surrounded by US vassals who have combined significant armies as well as US bases and air fields.
Frankly I think Iran is slated for a Syria/Libya style civil war/insurgency pushed by the west (at a much faster tempo most likely especially if they can keep Russia distracted in Ukraine they won’t be able to help much like in Syria) and these moves are perhaps just to ensure when they collapse they won’t have nuclear material angry Iranian loyalists can use for revenge attacks on the zionist entity, its regional pawns or the west itself.
It would have been, if the war stopped today and the genocide continued. As Israel and Iran both seem to keep bombing each other, it’s a win for him to duck out, but he didn’t stop Iran in its tracks as intended (see the retaliation post from two days ago)
Teflon Don is a master at wriggling his way out of , we should have learned this by now.
Sure, everyone else might still be fucked, but at least he’s out of the line of fire, and that’s all that matters to Trump.
I mean, I wish it was true, and as much as I’d like to imagine that Brother Trump has found the light of Islam, now refuses to put the Ayatollah in harm’s way, and is planning the downfall of Tel Aviv, it just doesn’t sound like something that any US president would even dream of.
All I know is that Trump being the one person responsible for Israel’s destruction (because let’s face it, that’s what would happen without US support), I don’t think I would ever be able to stop laughing. It would be by far the funniest event in modern history, and nothing else comes even close.
I genuinely believe (but it might be hopium) that Trump is too narcissistic to want his image tied to another disastrous military quagmire. Which puts Israel in a seriously sticky situation. Even if they exit the conflict with their tails between their legs, the perception of their regional power will be diminished. The idea that a country can make Israel bleed, even if only a little bit, without getting levelled by the United States is novel, and perhaps world-changing in the grander scheme.
Watch this be wrong and Trump declares a boots on the ground disaster in the next twenty-four hours.
This would still mean he is afraid of the israel lobby which means he can’t play chess
5d chess would have been yanking the leash of entity in march, this is just Zionist fever dream we’ve been livin for 20 years
no https://hexbear.net/comment/6272720
Very legal and very cool